FEMA's expected annual loss rate from natural disasters blended with its community risk factor, how much disasters take from a place in a typical year and how hard it is to recover.
Virginia Beach, Virginia is the safest from disasters of the 103 US cities we rank, with a Disaster Score of 97.7 out of 100 (FEMA, Dec 2025). Portland, Maine is next, with a Disaster Score of 93.8.

No. 1Virginia Beach, Virginia97.71 expected loss-rate percentile
No. 2Portland, Maine93.88.1 expected loss-rate percentile
No. 3Madison, Wisconsin91.83.2 expected loss-rate percentile
No. 4Spokane, Washington89.31.1 expected loss-rate percentile
No. 5Grand Rapids, Michigan88.46.3 expected loss-rate percentileFEMA's expected annual loss rate from natural disasters blended with its community risk factor, how much disasters take from a place in a typical year and how hard it is to recover.
| Place | Disaster Scoreout of 100 | Loss rateFEMA percentile | Recovery riskFEMA factor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia Beach, Virginiabig city | 97.7 | 199 | 0.6897 |
| 2 | Portland, Maine | 93.8 | 8.188 | 0.56100 |
| 3 | Madison, Wisconsinbig city | 91.8 | 3.295 | 0.8389 |
| 4 | Spokane, Washington | 89.3 | 1.198 | 0.8981 |
| 5 | Grand Rapids, Michigan | 88.4 | 6.390 | 0.8587 |
| 6 | Atlanta, Georgiabig city | 86.2 | 5.790 | 0.8882 |
| 6 | Des Moines, Iowa | 86.2 | 1084 | 0.8588 |
| 8 | Boise, Idaho | 84.9 | 2170 | 0.6399 |
| 8 | Minneapolis, Minnesotabig city | 84.9 | 8.887 | 0.8883 |
| 10 | Albany, New York | 80.6 | 3.793 | 0.9568 |
| 10 | Austin, Texasbig city | 80.6 | 2172 | 0.8390 |
| 12 | Worcester, Massachusetts | 79.5 | 1381 | 0.9078 |
| 13 | Raleigh, North Carolinabig city | 77.7 | 3257 | 0.6699 |
| 14 | Knoxville, Tennessee | 76 | 1776 | 0.9276 |
| 15 | Vancouver, Washington | 74.7 | 3256 | 0.8093 |
| 16 | Washington, DCbig city | 73.7 | 0.3100 | 1.0447 |
| 17 | Akron, Ohio | 73.4 | 3.494 | 1.0353 |
| 18 | Kansas City, Missouribig city | 72.1 | 1677 | 0.9667 |
| 18 | Richmond, Virginia | 72.1 | 1.297 | 1.0447 |
| 20 | Ogden, Utah | 71.4 | 4145 | 0.6698 |
| 21 | Greenville, South Carolina | 69.8 | 2963 | 0.9177 |
| 22 | Syracuse, New York | 69.4 | 9.786 | 1.0253 |
| 23 | Salt Lake City, Utah | 68.8 | 4542 | 0.7195 |
| 24 | Fayetteville, Arkansas | 68.4 | 1973 | 0.9764 |
| 24 | Poughkeepsie, New York | 68.4 | 3157 | 0.9080 |
| 26 | Rochester, New York | 67.8 | 2.995 | 1.0640 |
| 27 | Durham, North Carolinabig city | 65.5 | 3059 | 0.9472 |
| 28 | Columbus, Ohiobig city | 65.2 | 1380 | 1.0350 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvaniabig city | 64.2 | 2368 | 0.9861 |
| 30 | Asheville, North Carolina | 63.9 | 2171 | 1.0157 |
| 31 | Cincinnati, Ohiobig city | 63.5 | 7.788 | 1.0739 |
| 32 | Omaha, Nebraskabig city | 62.9 | 4344 | 0.8982 |
| 33 | Wichita, Kansasbig city | 60.9 | 3159 | 0.9763 |
| 34 | Provo, Utah | 60.6 | 6224 | 0.6797 |
| 35 | Charlotte, North Carolinabig city | 60.5 | 4937 | 0.8784 |
| 35 | Colorado Springs, Coloradobig city | 60.5 | 5826 | 0.7395 |
| 37 | Columbia, South Carolina | 60.4 | 2863 | 1.0058 |
| 38 | Dayton, Ohio | 60.2 | 8.986 | 1.0934 |
| 39 | Milwaukee, Wisconsinbig city | 58.6 | 1.697 | 1.2020 |
| 40 | Phoenix, Arizonabig city | 57.2 | 3948 | 0.9666 |
| 41 | Albuquerque, New Mexicobig city | 56.9 | 1578 | 1.0936 |
| 42 | Cleveland, Ohiobig city | 56.6 | 3.593 | 1.2120 |
| 43 | Indianapolis, Indianabig city | 56.3 | 2270 | 1.0543 |
| 43 | Sacramento, Californiabig city | 56.3 | 2961 | 1.0351 |
| 45 | Boston, Massachusettsbig city | 54.5 | 1.796 | 1.2713 |
| 46 | Denver, Coloradobig city | 54 | 6323 | 0.8685 |
| 47 | Seattle, Washingtonbig city | 53.6 | 7816 | 0.8391 |
| 48 | Baltimore, Marylandbig city | 53.3 | 0.699 | 1.337 |
| 49 | Allentown, Pennsylvania | 52.6 | 1282 | 1.1923 |
| 50 | Toledo, Ohiobig city | 52 | 1775 | 1.1429 |
| 51 | Las Vegas, Nevadabig city | 51.8 | 1874 | 1.1430 |
| 52 | Buffalo, New Yorkbig city | 50 | 2665 | 1.0935 |
| 53 | Greensboro, North Carolinabig city | 49.8 | 2962 | 1.0738 |
| 54 | Augusta, Georgia | 49.7 | 1084 | 1.2416 |
| 54 | Providence, Rhode Island | 49.7 | 2072 | 1.1527 |
| 56 | Winston-Salem, North Carolinabig city | 49.5 | 3354 | 1.0545 |
| 57 | Portland, Oregonbig city | 49.3 | 5331 | 0.9668 |
| 58 | Orlando, Floridabig city | 48.4 | 4738 | 0.9959 |
| 59 | Harrisburg, Pennsylvania | 48.2 | 4541 | 1.0255 |
| 60 | Detroit, Michiganbig city | 48 | 4.592 | 1.384 |
| 61 | Huntsville, Alabama | 47.5 | 6124 | 0.9471 |
| 62 | Chattanooga, Tennessee | 47.2 | 4740 | 1.0255 |
| 63 | San Jose, Californiabig city | 46.1 | 927 | 0.8686 |
| 64 | New York, New Yorkbig city | 45.8 | 5.391 | 1.621 |
| 65 | El Paso, Texasbig city | 45.1 | 6.489 | 1.611 |
| 66 | Jacksonville, Floridabig city | 44.3 | 4443 | 1.0545 |
| 67 | Reno, Nevadabig city | 42.4 | 8111 | 0.9274 |
| 68 | Charleston, South Carolina | 41.4 | 944 | 0.9079 |
| 69 | Tulsa, Oklahomabig city | 41.1 | 3355 | 1.1528 |
| 70 | Chicago, Illinoisbig city | 40.5 | 2864 | 1.2217 |
| 70 | Philadelphia, Pennsylvaniabig city | 40.5 | 1579 | 1.542 |
| 72 | Nashville, Tennesseebig city | 39.8 | 4838 | 1.0542 |
| 73 | San Diego, Californiabig city | 38.5 | 917 | 0.9570 |
| 74 | Honolulu, Hawaiibig city | 38.3 | 926 | 0.9471 |
| 75 | Tampa, Floridabig city | 38.2 | 6026 | 1.0351 |
| 76 | Dallas, Texasbig city | 37.5 | 2961 | 1.2415 |
| 77 | Oklahoma City, Oklahomabig city | 36.3 | 4443 | 1.1430 |
| 78 | Oxnard, California | 33.3 | 935 | 0.9861 |
| 79 | Birmingham, Alabama | 32.6 | 4640 | 1.1725 |
| 80 | San Antonio, Texasbig city | 31.6 | 4145 | 1.2218 |
| 81 | St. Louis, Missouribig city | 29.3 | 3850 | 1.339 |
| 82 | Riverside, Californiabig city | 27 | 990 | 1.0254 |
| 83 | Stockton, Californiabig city | 26.6 | 8112 | 1.0641 |
| 84 | San Francisco, Californiabig city | 26.5 | 7815 | 1.0738 |
| 85 | Louisville, Kentuckybig city | 24.4 | 6322 | 1.1626 |
| 86 | Savannah, Georgia | 22.3 | 961 | 1.0544 |
| 87 | Baton Rouge, Louisiana | 21.6 | 5430 | 1.2713 |
| 88 | Melbourne, Florida | 21.4 | 962 | 1.0641 |
| 89 | Lakeland, Florida | 20.8 | 8013 | 1.1528 |
| 90 | Memphis, Tennesseebig city | 20.4 | 5035 | 1.346 |
| 91 | Tucson, Arizonabig city | 20.1 | 7915 | 1.1626 |
| 92 | Little Rock, Arkansas | 19 | 6920 | 1.2118 |
| 93 | Daytona Beach, Florida | 16.8 | 8111 | 1.1922 |
| 94 | Los Angeles, Californiabig city | 13.5 | 898 | 1.2119 |
| 95 | Houston, Texasbig city | 12.9 | 7518 | 1.338 |
| 96 | Bakersfield, Californiabig city | 12.2 | 8113 | 1.2812 |
| 97 | Fresno, Californiabig city | 11.2 | 889 | 1.2514 |
| 98 | McAllen, Texas | 10.2 | 6820 | 1.870 |
| 99 | Miami, Floridabig city | 8.6 | 8014 | 1.393 |
| 100 | New Orleans, Louisianabig city | 6.6 | 963 | 1.2911 |
| 101 | Jackson, Mississippi | 6.3 | 8210 | 1.393 |
| 102 | Sarasota, Florida | 4.9 | 953 | 1.347 |
| 103 | Cape Coral, Florida | 3.1 | 961 | 1.355 |
How we got this. The Disaster Score is The Honest Local’s own recipe. Each source ranks every place on its own from 0 to 100 and the score is the average, so a place has to do well on all of them to lead. We blend two numbers from FEMA's National Risk Index county table, and neither grows with the size of the county, so a big county never reads as riskier just for being big. The first is FEMA's expected annual loss rate, the share of a county's buildings, people and crops that FEMA's 18 hazards, from floods and hurricanes to wildfires and earthquakes, take in a typical year, as a percentile of every US county. Zero is the lowest rate in the country and 100 the highest, and it's the number we show you. A state's figure is the population-weighted average of its counties' percentiles, our math, not a FEMA number. The second is FEMA's community risk factor, which weighs how vulnerable the people are against how well the community recovers. Each ranks every place against every other place that has it and the average of the two ranks is the score that decides the list. A city uses its own county. In Virginia an independent city such as Richmond or Virginia Beach is its own county in FEMA's table, so it reads its own row, not the county around it. For a state we never hand you one county's reading and call it the state's. We weight every county in the state by population, for each source on its own. It refreshes once a year, on FEMA's release cycle. For Virginia Beach, Virginia, that means FEMA NRI expected annual loss rate percentile for Virginia Beach City, Virginia (FIPS 51810, population 458,853).
Rankings by The Honest Local from public data, one page per list, refreshed on each source’s own cycle. Places with no reading are left out rather than estimated. Every value on this page carries its source in the page’s structured data.
Photos More Than Just Parks · ARCloud, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · WMrapids, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.